NASDAQ 100 OPEN: Miami. March 24th-April 4th 2004

The second big tournament of the month comes round. After Indian Wells, the tours stars come to Miami, for what many see as the top event outside the grand slams. A good week for Maria last week, although it did not bring about a rise in the rankings. She stays in 23rd spot, but closes the gap on the top twenty, and with a good performance this week, the gap will be smaller still, maybe even gone completely. That said, a top 20 spot has been talked about for weeks on this website, and so this week theres not going to be a lot of attention paid to it.

What should be discussed however is Maria's progress this year. With the exception of the loss to Hantuchova in Tokyo, Maria's three other losses have come against opponents who represent the next step up in her development. Ranked around the low 20's Maria can expect to challenge those up to around 15. But those higher are a different mountain to climb. It is this mountain that Maria should be focussed on. Granted, her rise over the last 18 months has been astounding, and suggesting a ranking of 23 going into Miami this time last year would have brought derisory laughs, but simply because she has enjoyed this rise should not mean she should be content to rest on her laurels. Efforts should be made to take this step, and thus the question that needs to be asked is what represents the best way to make this step. Alternatively, we could ask why she hasnt made the step already.

Maria started the year in 32nd spot. So she has moved up 9 places from the four tournaments she has played this year. This is certainly not a bad outcome, especially based on those she is now ranked higher than. However, you do still get the felling that going into matches against the top echelon of players, that she has little chance of pulling off a victory. The question is that how could Maria's game change to turn these matches into victories? She already has the power to match the top players, and her serve is consistent enough. The Myskina match last week showed that Maria could also work breaks against the top players. Last week's defeat was a case of Maria not taking her opportunities, and was certainly closer than the score line suggested. Therefore is the issue here consistency? Myskina is one of the top players in the world at the moment, and this year, with the exception of Henin, is in the best of any of the top ten. And yet Maria still managed to create a number of break points. Consistency will come, and her game will develop, but the time scale remains unanswerable. Last year was a breakthrough year for Maria, though as i say, she shouldnt therefore put progression on the back burner. Consistency and the game will come, and so losses are understandable. But when a match is lost with the amount of opportunities Maria had last week, then another problem must be evident. Maybe the rise that Maria enjoyed last year has resulted in a degree of arrogance. To drive up the rankings the way she did in the second half of last year will do wonders for confidecen, but may also sow the seeds of arrogance and complacency. Forcing numerous breaks points against one of the form players of the year shows that her game is in good shape, but missing them suggests that something may be wrong upstairs. And maybe it is this which should be of greatest concern facing Maria at the moment, and not the development of her game.

At Miami this week, Maria is again seeded. After last years wildcard, and first round defeat, there is more opportunity to make up points. The more points she gains before the grass season, the less she has to make up later in the year when her results began to get better, and so she will be able to defend her ranking easier. So such a big event will provide the perfect opportunity to push the rankings again. It is Tier One, played on Outdoors hardcourt and prize money of over three million keeps the bank balance interested.

The draw

1st  round	2nd round	3rd round	4th round	QF	SF	Final	Winner
SWilliams(1)
Bye
Qualifier
Haynes
Qualifier
Reeves
bye
Likhovtseva(31)
Sharapova(17)
Bye
Srebotnik
Asagoe
Majoli
Qualifier
Bye
Pistolesi(13)
Suarez(9)
Bye
Chladkova
Cervanova
Casanova
Jackson
Bye
Serna(18)
Mandula(30)
Bye
Harkleroad
Craybas
Garbin
Czink
Bye
Zvonareva(7)
Capriati(4)
Bye
Stevenson
Koukalova
Morigami
Qualifier
Bye
Daniilidou(25)
Safina(23)
Bye
Medina-Guarrigues
Golovin
Jankovic
Schaul
Bye
Maleeva(14)
Kuznetsova(10)
Bye
Kremer
Cho
Qualifier
Kapros
Bye
Pisnik(22)
Sprem(29)
Bye
Qualifier
Vakulenko
Vento-Kabachi
Qualifier
Bye
Sugiyama(6)
Petrova(8)
Bye
Callens
Qualifier
Barna
Diaz-Oliva
Bye
Loit(32)
Molik(24)
Bye
Frazier
Black
Qualifier
Sucha
Bye
Farina-Elia(11)
Zuluaga(16)
Bye
Perry
Weingartner
Perebiynis
Granville
Bye
Dechy(21)
Krasnoroutskaya(28)
Bye
Qualifier
Gagliardi
Irvin
Kutuzova
Bye
Myskina(3)
Dementieva(5)
Bye
Qualifier
Ondraskova
Qualifier
Obata
Bye
Sanchez-Lorenzo(26)
Shaughnessy(19)
Bye
Kostanic
Brandi
Pratt
Parra
Bye
Dokic(12)
Schiavone(16)
Bye
Vaidisova
Kurhajcova
Schett
Panova
Bye
Raymond(20)
Hantuchova(27)
Bye
Ruano-Pascual
Tanasugarn
Qualifier
Zheng
Bye
VWilliams(2)

As 17th seed, Maria could expect a tricky tie come third round. Same as last week, in the big tournaments, she will always be faced with tough ties come round three/four, until she herself represents a tricky tie, and get a top ten seeding. This week, it is no different.

A bye in the first round as a seed will mean she gains points on last year, which is the main thing ranking wise. Second round, her likely opponent will be the Shinobu Asagoe. Ranked just in the top 50, she should not trouble Maria a great deal. Asagoe herself lost to one young prodigy a fortnight ago, when she was put out of Indian Wells by Tatiana Golovin. Therefore she wont be high on confidence, and a draw against Maria will not have pleased her. A win for Maria in straights sets should follow.

Third round, and a tie against a seed faces Maria. Anna Pistolesi has not had a good year thus far, twice falling victim to Golovin herself. That said, she should not be under estimated. This will be a good test of any arrogance in Maria's game. Pistolesi represents a player who has been struggling for form, has fallen to a couple of shock results, and Maia may look at this match as an easy match into the next round. This cannot be the case, if Maria has intentions of getting any further in the tournament. I think that provided Maria focuses on the match, rather than assuming she will pick up an easy win, she should come through.

And in the next round, she will face Serene Williams. Even if she is playing her first event in however many months, she wont drop many games up to this stage. Maria will be a step up for Serena, and arguably her first real test since coming back. Unfortunately, I think Maria will again be victim to not being able to make that step up, as discussed earlier. A fourth round appearance is a good effort, but attention should now go on how to make that step up to challenge the likes of Serena. The future isnt yet dim, but possible problems with Maria’s attitude could make it a little cloudy.