After the glitz and prestige of the Australian Open, the tour now moves onto Tokyo, and Maria’s second tournament of the year. Maria has never played Tokyo before, but will have fond memories of her last tournament in Japan, where she won her first tour event last year in October. To replicate such an achievement is a tough task, but for fear of sounding repetitive, is not something that is impossible. The absence of both Belgian girls means that the field is wide open, even with Venus in as top seed.

Maria pulled out of the doubles last week in Australia with a lower leg problem, but that decision must have been little more than a precaution. With the big things expected, and indeed within her capabilities, Maria does not need to suffer an injury that would ruin her season just to play doubles.

It was a good performance in Australia. I think anything else would be charitable, and to call it disappointing would be unfair. Coming up against one of the top seeds in a Grand Slam, regardless of how prodigious you are is always going to be a tough task. As Maria put it herself, her loss could well be attributed to a lack of experience rather than being outplayed, although I sincerely hope that she does not develop the habit of finding excuses rather than commending opponents as some players on the tour have turned into an art form. Maria made a lot more unforced errors than Myskina, and other stats likewise suggested that Maria was outplayed, and so based on that shouldn’t have gone through. Maybe that does come down to experience and shot selection, but even so, ignoring being outplayed will ultimately lead to arrogance and in her game, a problem which certainly does not want to begin to creep onto court with her.

Despite that, Maria still made points last week, following her first round exit in the 2003 Australian Open. Last year she gained 38 points from the Australian Open. The points she gained this year will cover the deductions up to the start of April this year, Leaving an opportunity for Maria to push further up the rankings, even from her position of 27 at present, and especially with the two tier 1’s in Miami and Indian Wells to come. Injury free, Maria can not only look for a seeding at both the French and Wimbledon, but infact high seedings helping her progression further.

Anyway, I have continually gone on about how well this year could potentially be for Maria. This week offers Maria the chance to prove me right or wrong. In an open field such as the one in Tokyo this week, Maria can hope to earn yet more points, and continue her progression. The restrictions on the amount of tournaments she can play are still in place, and so she must take every opportunity to gain points that she can. The field, and the draw this week allows for this this week.

The draw has been good for Maria. She finds herself in a quarter that she is easy capable of reaching the quarters, and maybe even the semis depending on how Davenport is playing. Davenport has lost twice this year, both times to Henin-Hardenne, and so shouldn’t feel too aggrieved. To cling onto Maria’s defeat of Dementieva in the exhibition would be naïve, but nevertheless, Maria is capable of testing the top ten. She took a set off Myskina last week, and shock a performance out of Venus in the same exhibition. That match is however, a number of matches off yet.

First round, Maria comes up against the wildcard of Yuka Yoshida. The world number 133 came through the qualifiers in Hobart, but went out round 1, and then lost in the first round of qualifiers for the Aus Open. This match, as is increasingly becoming the case for Maria (testament to her capabilities) is nothing more than a warm up match. When her match comes round, Maria will not have played for over a week, and so will get her back into the swing of things following the concern over her injury.

Second round is a much sterner test. Either Molik or Hantuchova will be a tough match, and a step up from the first round. It would be easy to go for a Hantuchova win based on her seeding, but I think Molik will come through their match. Hantuchova’s performance last week did little to suggest that she had turned the corner from last years disappointing season, and I think the bad form and fortune is set to continue this week. And so for Maria in round 2 is Alicia Molik. Her only tournament this year, like Maria has been the Australian Open, where she progressed to the fourth round before losing to Mauresmo. It is again testament to Maria’s performances that she goes into this match as favourite, and I cant see any major problems in this round. It will test Maria, certainly moreso than the first round, but should take it in two tight sets.

The quarter final will see Maria face Davenport. A tough match, and one that I cant see Maria coming through. Davenport should have too much for her in this one. I think Maria can take a set, but that’s about all of it. For most of this year, I think we will see Maria testing those in the top ten, rather than beating them. From there we will see where it goes.

What will be interesting is how Maria takes the defeat (should she lose). One would hope we see a return to the gracious loser rather than the increasingly arrogant Maria. For one with such talent, such a character trait is not well suited.

R1: Maria def Yoshida in straights

R2: Maria def Molik in straights

QF: Davenport def Maria in three

SF: Davenport def Dokic in three

Final: Davenport def Rubin in three

On a personal note, I would also like to wish Jelena Dokic all the luck in the world in her first tournament of the year, and hopefully this year will see a return to the tennis that she is capable of, hopefully starting with a semi-final appearance here.

Got anything you want to say to me? Matty_donaldson1@hotmail.com