Australian Open January 19^th-February 1^st

Here we go again then. This time last year, I was writing the first article for this site, saying how Maria had played in the qualifiers, and how she had surpassed what many had expected of her to reach the first round. Who would have guessed that 12 months later, she would be coming back to the event as a seed? 2003 was a huge year for Maria. She carried the mantle of the new Kournikova for a long time, but went some way to dispelling such a title by winning two tournaments. And she gained a lot of support along the way.

And so the question that now faces us is whether Maria can hold onto her position from last year, or whether it was simply a flash in the pan? Alternatively, what are the chances of a rise in the rankings?

The frightening thing about Maria this year is that she has very few points to defend at all before the start of the grass season. Infact, a place in the fourth round in Australia may even cover all of her points from the first half of last season, depending on quality points. This being the case, its plausible that a good start to the season may see Maria challenging top 20, and with her favoured half of the year to come. Continued rises should bring seedings and favourable draws, and so a rise it could be argued is almost certain provided Maria stays clear of injury and distraction and plays the game we all know she can.

One thing may play against her however. Players will no longer see her as a dangerous newcomer. Last year, few players knew about Maria and her strengths, and were shocked when they got on court with her, the two events on grass last year proving this point perfectly. This year, players will be aware of Maria’s talent, and so will not underestimate her when the match begins.

2004 should be another great year for Maria and her fans. 2003 was amazing, and it would an achievement for Maria to retain that position such was the quality of last year. However, I don’t think that will happen, and I don’t think Maria wants that to happen. This year, we will see a push up the rankings, and we will see more titles. And eventually the media will stop referring to Maria as the next Kournikova, and will soon start calling her, as she has always insisted they would, the first Sharapova.

The Draw

Australian Open Draw

Maria, as a seed has been given a decent draw. Iy certainly is better than she could have expected if she wasn’t seeded. And the thing to remember is that no player will look forward to playing Maria. She has already proved that she has the ability to play and beat top ten players, beating Dementieva in an exhibition recently. And as well as having the game, she has the mind to deal with big names too. At Wimbleond, we saw that she doesn’t get phased by big matches, playing and beating seeds comfortably that week. Now she is more confident, on a surface she is capable of playing some marvellous tenis on, and will know that if she plays to her capabilities, she has the beating of most, and the challenging of all. If any player in the draw, and this includes the top seeds, was to underestimate her for one minute, they would be struggling. Against Venus in the recent exshibition, Maria was 5-1 up in the first set before Venus pulled her game together. All the seeds in the draw will not look forward to playing Maria.

I said that a rise up the rankings will happen for Maria this year earlier, and here in Australia we should be able to see how much of a rise Maria can look forward to. Granted its her first event of the year, and she is still under age restrictions, but Maria is easily a top 20 player, and so the real goal this year, if Maria really qwanted to push her game, would be top 10. To do this, Maria is going to have to beat players from the top 10. And where better to do it in the firwst Grand Slam of the year, to signal her intentions and to make a statement to all ahead of her to make watch out.

First round, Maria faces the Spaniard Conchita Martinez Granados. This shouldn’t be any more than a warm up game. With all respect to her opponent, it will be a nice way for Maria to ease herself back into competitive tennis, and into the tournament.

Next she will come up against Lindsay Lee Waters. Again, this match should not prove too much trouble. It will like the first round match, get Maria match fit again, and iron out any rustiness out fo her gamefrom not playing any events before the tournamwent started.

Its now when the real matches begin. The lack of depth in the ladies game means that decent matches don’t really come around until the 4^th round, but here we are treated to what should be a good match. Maria will come up against 6^th seed compatriot Annastasia Myskina. This will be ahuge step up for Maria in terms of opponent from the last two rounds. The world number 7 enjoyed a good year last year, and made herself a worthy entrant in the top 10. She ahs played well this seaons so far, and last year reched the quarter finals of this event. But like I said before, Maria will not fear anyone, and her game is one that could challenge Myskina’s. It will be a good match, and one that I think Maria is capable of winning. And as its the first event of the year, and im in a good mood, im going to go for a Maria win in one of the matches of the tournament.

And from here on, there are no eaqsy matches. Next up will probably be American Chanda Rubin. Again, another player who made a warranted push into the top 10 last year. Of course, you don’t reach the top 10 without having a competent game, but likewise, I think Maria has the game to push her, and will take her. The confidence will be high, and Rubin will be uncomfortable playing against Maria with shots flying back at her with pace. It wont be as good as the Myskina match, but I think it will be another good match to watch, especially for Maria fans.

And then comes another test, this time one that will be huge. A win for Maria here and it would send shockwaves through the tour. Playing Clijsters is a massive challenge for Maria, and one that may be a little too much. Whereas Maria has the game to play and beat the likes of Myskina and Rubin, Clijsters, along with Henin and the Williams are a different level, and I don’t think Maria has it in her yet to deal with them. Maybe next year, maybe at the US Open, but not at this stage of the year.

Even so, a defeat in the quarters is not a bad acheievment, and will put Maria on a decent platform to challenge for the rest of the year. She can feel confident from there that she has the game to push for the top 10 spot that I mentionned earlier, and she can get to a ranking that her game warrants.

Round 1: Maria def Martinz Granados in straights

Round 2: Maria def Lee Waters in straights

Round 3: Maria def Myskina in three

Round 4: Maria def Rubin in three

Quarters: Clijsters def Maria in three

Semis: Venus def Clijsters in three

Final: Henin def Venus in straights