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Australian Open Preview... watch out for the Serena Slam
After a shock 1st round defeat last week to eventual Quarter-Finalist Olga Barabanschikova of Belarus, Conchita Martinez stayed in Sydney as the number 2 doubles seed in the tournament where she went down in the final, with partner Rennae Stubbs, to the number 3 seeds Clijsters/Sugiyama 6-3 6-3. Hopefully the matches she played in doubles as well as the amount of singles practice she had whilst at the Sydney tournament will allow her to gain momentum and travel far into the first grand slam of the 2003, the Australian Open. Martinez is situated in the 4th quarter this year as the number 31st seed! (It is great to see her at least seeded this year!). She has a relatively easy road to the 3rd round, although there is a slight chance she could be defeated by the Australian wildcard Samantha Stosur who inevitably would have the crowd support behind her. Nevertheless, Conchita’s ability to get back in rallies with deep and penetrating moonballs as well as backhand slices will ultimately give her the chance to win this battle in straight sets. In addition, the fact that Stosur has a win/loss record since 1996 of 60-40 compared to Conchita’s 660-240 illustrates the fact that Martinez will win this match convincingly, despite the support the Aussie crowd will be giving her! In the second round, Martinez will once again have a relatively easy opponent if the form that carried her the last part of 2002 is still with her. She will either face Canadian qualifier Vanessa Webb, who finished last season as the number 150th ranked player, or Maria Sanchez Lorenzo of Spain who, similarly to Webb, is ranked outside the top 100 at number 110. So again, either one of these second round opponents should prove no problem for Martinez at this stage of the tournament, though it is imperative to note that an early round exit to players such as these is not impossible, as shown last week in Sydney. Now, a 3rd round match-up with the 7th seed Daniela Hantuchova of Slovakia would be very interesting. Their head-to-head record is as follows:
As can be seen, Martinez comfortably beat the Slovak at the French Open in 2001 and only two months ago was just beaten in a nail-biting three setter in the Fed Cup final. That last score line suggests that if these two players were to progress to the 3rd round, as the seeds imply, then a long, hard-fought match could follow. If it went down to the survival of the fittest, unfortunately, I think Hantuchova would win quite convincingly in the third set. However, as Conchita has shown throughout her career, she is not afraid to go the long distance to progress to the later rounds of any tournament! If successful in the 3rd round, Conchita will either have to play the new Swiss miss, Patty Schnyder, or Japanese player Ai Sugayama. These two players have a head to head record of 1-1 so it is very difficult to say, if they were to meet, who would win the match. Then again, they could both be knocked out by lower ranked-players in their section of the draw. My bet is Conchita will win in 3 sets against new Russian sensation, Nadia Petrova, who is able to penetrate the ball with so much pace and accuracy that Conchita will have to use every trick in the book to remain in the tournament. Ultimately, Conchita’s Quarter-Finalist opponent will be the world number 2 and seeded number 2 player, Venus Williams of America. Williams, who was a quarter-finalist here last year, where she lost to Monica Seles in 3 sets, made the final of every Grand Slam last year, apart from the Oz Open, and will thus be a serious force to be reckoned with. Additionally, Conchita’s head to head record with the American is far from impressive, losing both times, her last loss to her quite convincingly:
Now, as a semi-finalist, Martinez will most likely face one of the following players, most of whom she has beaten before:
As for the final, Martinez will most likely only have to play Serena Williams and number 1 seed, who might go out in the second round to Els Callens (who nearly defeated her at Wimbledon in 2002, only losing 7-6 7-6), or on-fire Belgian, Kim Clijsters. Clijsters recently defeated Davenport in straight sets last week to collect her 11th WTA title and in the final of last year’s season-ending Championships, she was successful against Williams in straight sets, 7-5 6-3. However, she also lost to Williams two weeks ago with a similar score line. Nonetheless, Conchita will probably lose to one of these players in straight sets, depending on her level of tiredness and ability to deal with each of these player’s pace.
PREDICTIONS: 1ST ROUND: Martinez defeats Stosur 6-3 6-2 2nd ROUND: Martinez defeats Webb 6-4 6-0 3RD ROUND: Martinez defeats Hantuchova 6-1 0-6 8-6 4th ROUND: Martinez defeats Petrova 2-6 6-3 6-4 QF: V. Williams defeats Martinez 6-1 6-3 VAMOS CONCHITA, VAMOS! |
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