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Top 10 most intriguing questions
 By
Todd Spiker
TENNISRULZ.com - December 2002
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Serena Slam, Venus Envy, Wonder
Girl, a Russian Winter and a Waffle for Christmas... THE 2nd ANNUAL
TENNISRULZ.com WTA TOP 10 INTRIGUING QUESTIONS (2003)
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by Todd Spiker
Well, it's time to look like I have the slightest clue about what I'm talking
about... only to be proven about half-right on that account eleven months from
now. That being said, here it goes:
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10.Amelie Mauresmo seemed to
finally turn the corner on her past disappointments in 2002, but was
her big event success just another teasing flash in the pan?
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The book on Mauresmo before 2002 was that she was as unreliable as they come
in big matches, and would never reach the potential she showed in advancing to
the Oz final in 1999. After all, the best slam result she'd had since then was
one US QF, and she'd never won a Tier I title. Possibly seeing her talent going
to waste, Mauresmo brought aboard a new coach in French Fed Cup Captain Loic
Courteau in 2002... and the uprise in her results was striking. Sporting a more
aggressive, net-approaching mindset that boosted her oft-flagging confidence,
Mauresmo made the SF at both Wimbledon and the US Open. She took the Montreal
Tier I crown, as well, for her biggest title as a pro. As the fall approached,
she looked as if she might challenge for a season-ending ranking as high as #3.
Then, her other career-long obstable flared up again -- her own body. A knee
injury knocked her out of the final weeks of the season, including the WTA
Championships. She ended the year at #6, still her best year-end rank ever.
PREDICTION:
Mauresmo's knee injury will keep her out of Oz next month, so 2003 won't
allow her to get out of the box quickly. Essentially, as she usually does,
she'll be revving herself up for clay court season in the spring. I still think
she's got one grand slam title in her, but she won't claim it in 2003. In fact,
I'm betting the 23-year old's "year after" results will take something of a dip
as she'll have to stay healthy into the fall in order to fight off the
sligthly-younger corps of women coming up behind her in order to maintain her
Top 10 ranking.
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9.Will one of the perennial
underachievers finally shed the "loser/choker" tag this season as
Mauresmo did in '02?
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Last year, Mauresmo made positive strides, Chanda Rubin got healthy and rose
in the rankings, while Maggie Maleeva and Patty Schnyder made off with surprise
Tier I titles. So mark them off the "disappointment" list. Let's see, who's
left. Oh, yeah -- Elena Dementieva and Alexandra Stevenson, as usual.
Stevenson, at least, looked like she wanted to change her career lot in
2002. She opened the year by knocking off Jennifer Capriati, and later made the
Memphis final (but blew a golden opportunity to win against Lisa Raymond).
Then, after disappearing for months in the wake of the disappointment, she
surged late. She defeated Capriati again, got to a career-high #18 and nearly
qualified for the WTA Championships.
Dementieva, on the other hand, remained the most mind-boggling Top 20 talent
around. Her ability isn't in question, but her heart and mind always seem to
leave room for question. Everyone talks about the rising Russians, but it's
easy to forget that it was Dementieva's 2000 US SF that signaled the early
arrival of the post-Anna contingent (though she's only four mounths younger than
Kournikova). She hasn't followed that success up by a long shot. Like
Kournikova, she's still seeking her first singles title... but no one's backing
Elena into a corner about her off-court distractions. Her problems are right on
the court. How else can her propensity for losing to lesser-ranked players (0-3
vs. Angelika Roesch in '02, for example) be explained? Worse yet, the defeats
usually come about despite her claiming of the opening set. Once she loses to a
player once, she never seems to forget about it, thereby entering the next match
with a disadvantage before the first ball is struck (her recent results against
Jelena Dokic being the prime example, as Dokic has won five straight after
Dementieva took their first two meetings, although Elena has won the 1st set in
four of the five losses). Dementieva's consistently in the Top 20 (though she
briefly dropped to #22 this year), and did put together a string of 4r-or-better
slam results, but she's capable of so much more. With her talent, that she
still hasn't won a singles title after four years on tour is inexcusable.
PREDICTION:
Stevenson is too flighty to be a consistent top force, but she'll rise into
the Top 15 in 2003 and claim her first two singles titles and get at least one
win over a Top 5 player.
Dementieva, on the other hand, will feel the heat of her oncoming fellow
Russians. At least one, and maybe as many as three, of them will surpass her in
the rankings this year. She won't win her first title, either. In fact,
Kournikova might beat her to it before the year is over. The experience might
just shock her back to life in 2004.
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8.Is is over (or nearly so) for
Capriati, Davenport and Seles?
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All three have first-class tickets to age 30, and are just waiting to
transform into the next over-the-hill Arantxa Sanchez Vicario.
Capriati opened the season with a miraculous come-from-behind title in Oz,
then didn't win another all season. If she can't come close to defending the
title in Melbourne next month, her ranking will tumble.
Seles seems to just be hanging around (her Oz upset of Venus notwithstanding)
waiting for the final slam run that just isn't going to happen. In truth, she's
never gotten into the physical condition to make herself a real threat since her
comeback.
Davenport missed most of 2002 following knee surgery after her #1-ranked
season of 2001, but returned in surprisingly good form. She made four finals,
but didn't win a single one (giving her her first title-less year since 1992)...
then blew 7 matchpoints against Seles in the WTA Championships.
PREDICTION:
Capriati will never recapture the magic of 2001, but she will win a singles
title of some kind in 2003. But make no mistake, she's now officially in the
back stretch of her "second" career... and, considering her bad-loser
temperament, it won't be a pretty sight when she does finally approach the
retirement finish line.
Seles is the best bet to turn into a ready-for-retirement ASV in 2003 or
2004, but will probably have enough sense to retire at the conclusion of this
season before she tarnishes her reputation with a string of 1st round losses to
unknowns. She'll stay in the Top 10 in 2003, but barely.
Davenport needs to only regain her match toughness to return to the upper
echelon of the sport. She'll have few points to defend from last season, so
barring injury she should be back in the Top 5 by the US Open.
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7.Will Jelena Dokic cut down on
the theatrics and emerge from her overly-dramatic life all the
better?
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For better or for worse, Dokic is the most interesting player currently
residing in the Top 10. You'll notice I said residing in the Top 10, and not
Australia... or Florida... or Belgrade... or Monte Carlo... or, well, you get
the idea.
The WTA's best traveling road show made 29 worldwide tour stops during the
2002 season and didn't pause to rest this offseason, either, as (maybe former?)
ringleader pop Damir saw fit to create some headlines with another of his
patented wacko interviews (is there any other kind?), as he volleyed back and
forth between his bad feelings toward his daughter's racecar driver boyfriend
and how much he'd hate it if Jelena were a lesbian. Oh, how Jelena's world
turns and turns.
Somehow, through a series of odd off-court events (political stands,
house-hunting stories, squabbles with tournament organizers, etc.), injuries and
end-of-year exhaustion, Dokic still managed to win two titles, finish #9 (she
was Top 10 in both singles and doubles at one point in the season, and was as
high as #4 in singles) and push Serena Williams in the WTA Championships QF
despite an ankle injury that nearly caused her to withdraw.
Dokic has always managed to thrive in the face of turmoil, but she showed the
first real on-court signs of cracking under the pressure in 2002 (the most
obvious being her off-court crying fit in L.A. before facing Chanda Rubin, then
her "semi-tank" performance on it moments later).
But late-year reports seemed to have her taking more charge of her life,
breaking away from her parents' control (it would explain the Damir interview --
if anything ever could, that is) and seeming to finally acknowledge that she
needs a coach she doesn't refer to as "dad" if she's ever going to get the most
out of her talent.
Dokic will have her successes and failures in 2003, but her most important
task will be to be allowed to grow up. If she could steer clear of the
requisite clutter that's dominated her tennis life, she could challenge for the
title of the best player not named Williams.
PREDICTION:
Dokic will follow through on her vow to cut back her number of tournaments,
but she'l still play more often than any other Top 10 player.
Healthier and better rested (and coached), she'll surge back from her often
star-crossed 2002 season to become the more consistent, versatile player she's
capable of being.
It won't be enough to become the best non-Williams in 2003 (not yet), and she
won't reach her first slam final. But at least one slam SF and a top 5 ranking
are surely within her grasp.
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6.Are "The Spice Girls" on their
way out for good?
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Martina Hingis fought back from injury to start 2002 off well, winning two
titles and reaching the Oz final. Her monumental choke job there against
Capriati, though, seemed to take the life out of her.
She battled injuries, blamed her shoe manufacturer and floated retirement
stories, followed Sergio Garcia around the PGA tour, came back too soon... then
left under an injury cloud again.
No player battles perception more than Anna Kournikova and, while her 2002
season wasn't as successful (0-4 in slams) as she would have wished, she gets
points for never giving up. In fact, the addition of Harold Solomon as her
coach seemed to give her the kickstart she needed as she put together an
impressive pre-US Open run and a RU in Shanghai last fall. In the end, she
finished her season with a mediocre 28-25 mark, but she raised her ranking from
#79 to #34.
PREDICTION:
Hingis could be finished, but Anna keeps plugging along.
If Martina, who's already bagged Oz, doesn't find her way out of the darkness
this year she might just walk away for good. Fact is, she never learned how to
lose as a junior and young pro, and once she started to she never figured out
how to get her confidence back. The fun is missing, and she's gone beyond the
tennis court to find it. She can't handle being #10 or worse, and don't be
surprised if 2003 is the last time we see Hingis as a full-time player. I just
don't think she has the heart to fight her way back at this point.
Kournikova puts up a good face that all the criticism doesn't bother her, but
once in a while (BBC, anyone?) the facade falls away. She DOES want to win, and
the Solomon hiring spoke directly to that. As long as she can stay healthy, I
think the dividends will pay off in 2003. I'll keep predicting that first
singles title until it finally happens, so here I go again.
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5.Will Venus Williams avoid
going two full years without winning a slam?
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All of sudden, Venus is now the solid #2 player in her family. How will she
respond? Well, if history is any judge, pretty well. After Serena took the
Williams' first slam title in 1999, Venus rebounded with four majors in her next
seven.
Lost in the Year of Serena was the fact that Venus rose to #1 for eleven
weeks last season before seeing her sister grab three straight slam titles.
PREDICTION:
Oz might be the most important tournament of the year. If may be imperative
for Venus to "outdo" Serena to set a good tone for her season.
Serena will be going for the "Serena Slam," while Venus will be trying to
prove she's not Sister #2 no matter how it looked in 2002. Plus, neither have
faired all that well in Melbourne over the years (neither has reached a
final)... and Kim Clijsters will likely be the crowd favorite. Under those
conditions, can Venus get her groove back immediately?
She might not win Oz, but Venus won't go slam-less in 2003. She'll add a
Wimbledon or US Open to her title cache before the year is out.
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4.Just how good are the young
Russians?
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In 2002, eight Russians finished in the Top 50, with two (#11 Myskina & #19
Dementieva) in the Top 20. Four different women won singles titles, eight
advanced to finals (going a combined 6-8) and twelve appeared in SF (14-17).
Two more won junior titles at Wimbledon and the US Open. And none of those
lists included the much talked-about personage of 14-year old Maria Sharapova.
Russian tennis has come a long way since Natasha Zvereva and Anna Kournikova
virtually put it on the map in the mid-to-late '90s... and it's poised to go a
long way farther in 2003. The advances were evident just in 2002, as the
season's first six months produced 1 Russian champion and 2 RU, while the last
five months saw 5 winners and 6 RU.
Among the Top 20 challengers in 2003 will be Tatiana Panova, Elena Bovina,
Anna Kournikova, Svetlana Kuznetsova and Vera Zvonarea, with the likes of Dinara
Safina, Nadia Petrova, and Lina Krasnoroutskaya not far behind.
PREDICTION:
Expect to see more of the same in 2003.
High-ranking Myskina may have topped out at #11, but she showed enough guts
in 2002 to think she might be able to challenge for a Top 10 spot this year;
while Dementieva needs to step things up now or else get lost in the Russian
shuffle.
Kuznetsova, Bovina and Zvonareva will make the Top 20 leap for the first time
this season, and Russians might fill as many as 7 or 8 of the Top 20 slots at
some point late in the season.
None looks to have grand slam title games as of yet, but Clijsters-cloned
Zvonareva bears some watching.
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3.Will "Wonder Girl" Daniela
Hantuchova become the Kournikova/Graf combo that the WTA desires?
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What hypocrites the WTA head honchos are. They spend an entire year
promoting 19-year old Hantuchova as the alluring, long-legged second coming of
Anna (but one who actually wins titles), then gets angry at a Sports Illustrated
article that creates a fictionalized teenager who fits into every category the
WTA tried to stuff Wonder Girl into in 2002. I guess they were just angry that
their evil plan was so easily uncovered.
Fact is, Hantuchova just might become the marketing megastar/sex
symbol/champion the WTA envisions. She's got the desire and game to do it, and
played her best tennis on the big grand slam and Tier I stages. A nagging
inconsistency elsewhere prevented an even larger splash, though, and it's hard
to get past the thought that her renowned praying mantis-like body might not
hold up to the wear-and-tear of back-to-back full-time seasons unless she makes
the commitment to build some muscle onto her frame.
Still, Hantuchova does have star quality and the game skills to become a
champion... now everyone sits back and waits with bated breath to see if ever
the two shall meet.
PREDICTION:
Hantuchova could take the easy road and become Anna II, but she wants more
than that. She'll take the first steps toward her grand goals in 2003.
This season will be her proving ground, and at least a slam SF and Top 5
ranking will be attained. It's 2004, though, where she'll rise to either a slam
title, or fall by the wayside due to injuries.
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2.Is the "Serena Slam" possible?
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No woman has won the true grand slam (all four majors in the same year) since
Steffi Graf in 1988. Only Martina Hingis truly came the close since then, in
1997. That is, until Serena went 3-for-3 in 2002, missing only the Oz title
(she withdrew with an injury).
With three in hand, Serena heads to Melbourne (her best result there: a QF in
2001) trying to at least hold all four crowns at once (Martina Navratilova did
it in 1983-84).
PREDICTION:
The "Serena Slam" could very well happen, but it won't. In fact, I see
Serena's dominance taking a bit of a hit in 2003. The first crack in the
exterior may have already occurred when Kim Clijsters defeated Serena in the WTA
Championships final.
I think it'll continue in Melbourne as the first of what I think will be
three different slam winners for this season will be crowned -- and it won't be
Serena.
Venus will be one, Serena another... with the third being the woman whose
journey I'm predicting will supplant "Serena Slam" as the year's most intriguing
story. That of...
(drumroll, please)
...Kim Clijsters.
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1.Can Kim Clijsters ride her
late 2002 surge to a challenge for #1?
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In what could turn out to be her last year as a full-fledged Waffle before
heading Down Under for keeps, 2003 could be Kim Clijsters' year.
She ended last season, after battling arm problems that stretched back to
January, with a three-tournament title, 18-match winning streak that got her to
#4 for the year. Of the young Top 10ers (Henin-Hardenne, Hantuchova and Dokic)
chasing the Williams sisters and Capriati, Clijsters is the one with the
burgeoning confidence heading into 2003... and, at 19 years and six months,
she's still the youngest player currently ranked in the Top 42.
Clijsters has to defend SF points at Oz next month, but that was her only
good slam result in 2002. She could reap huge rewards because of it, too.
Injuries contributed to a somewhat lackluster season until October, so she
shouldn't take any huge ranking hits for the majority of the season. The three
late-season titles mean she'll keep those points until the fall, giving her a
legitimate shot to gain on the Williams sisters. And if Clijsters can grab one
of the first three slam titles, while Serena claims just one, she might head to
New York with the US Open being the battleground for a fight to emerge as #1.
PREDICTION:
Clijsters will win at least one slam crown this year (I'm thinking grabbing
Oz, where she'll surely be a crowd favorite thanks to the Hewitt connection,
would be a pretty nice bet), and motor into the fall with a golden opportunity
to become the world #1 sometime in September (before her three-peat string of
title defenses to close the year). I, for one, think she'll do it.
It'd be boring to say her hold on the #1 spot would be temporary, with
whichever Williams sister who claims two grand slams this year ultimately ending
2003 as the #1 player. So, I'll take the leap and say Clijsters will have a
good enough year to hold onto the ranking after repeating as the WTA
Championship winner... allowing the Waffle to truly be in position to celebrate
next Christmas.
So, there it is. Come November, we'll see how much sense I just made.
**2003 TOP 20 PREDICTIONS*
1.Kim Clijsters
2.Serena Williams
3.Venus Williams
4.Lindsay Davenport
5.Daniela Hantuchova
6.Jelena Dokic
7.Justine Henin-Hardenne
8.Jennifer Capriati
9.Amelie Mauresmo
10.Monica Seles
11.Anastasia Myskina
12.Elena Bovina
13.Chanda Rubin
14.Svetlana Kuznetsova
15.Alexandra Stevenson
16.Martina Hingis
17.Maggie Maleeva
18.Vera Zvonareva
19.Eleni Daniilidou
20.Anna Kournikova
Enjoy the ride, it's only just beginning. That being said, away we go...
Dec.28-Jan.5
HOPMAN CUP (Hard-Perth, Australia)
F: USA (S.Williams/Blake) def. Slovakia (Hantuchova/Hrbaty)
...US edges past Belgium in Group A, while it be Australia over Slovakia from
Group B. The Serena-Clijsters clash next Friday could be quite interesting.
GOLD COAST, AUSTRALIA (Hard-Tier III)
SF: Daniilidou d. Husarova; Cho d. Srebotnik
F: Eleni Daniiidou def. Yoon-Jeong Cho
...Smashnova, er, I mean Pistolesi is still getting used to her new name
AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND (Hard-Tier IV)
SF: Mikaelian d. Schiavone; Kuznetsova d. Schett
F: Svetlana Kuznetsova def. Marie-Gaianeh Mikaelian
...it just wouldn't be right to not pick at least one Russian champion in Week
1. I'll go with the 17-year old to claim her third title, and cross my fingers
that she gets past Bovina in the 1r.
HONG KONG (Hard-Exhibition)
SF: Seles d. Maleeva; Stevenson d. Dementieva
F: Monica Seles def. Alexandra Stevenson
...an encouraging start to what could be a breakthrough season for Stevenson
**JANUARY WTA SCHEDULE**
WEEK 2 - Jan.6-12
Sydney, Australia (II)
Hobart, Australia (V)
Canberra, Australia (V)
WEEK 3/4 - Jan.13-26
Australian Open (Melbourne)
WEEK 5 - Jan.27-Feb.2
Tokyo TPP (I)
=====================================
**2003 ATP PREDICTIONS**
1.Lleyton Hewitt
2.Marat Safin
3.Andre Agassi
4.Roger Federer
5.Juan Carlos Ferrero
6.Gustavo Kuerten
7.Fernando Gonzalez
8.Andy Roddick
9.Paradorn Srichaphan
10.Carlos Moya
11.Tim Henman
12.Tommy Haas
13.Guillermo Canas
14.Paul-Henri Mathieu
15.Jiri Novak
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